Trends in Microprocessors and Semiconductors
How a Microprocessor Works
A "HowStuffWorks" Link that breaks down the details of microprocessors

A History of Microprocessors
The History of Microprocessors

Semiconductor Sales Trends

Semiconductor Sales Growth Slows 
InformationWeek.com article on The slow growth of Semiconductors

Semiconductor Magazine
Link to a magazine that deals with charts and graphics on semiconductors.

Manufacturers of North American Semiconductors
Incredible site of all the information on semiconductors (requires a login registry)

Dr. Dobbs Journal
The Dr. Dobbs Software Magazine and Tools site

Determining Processsor Untilization
Article dealing with Duty Cycle and Counter Approach in Semiconductors

Dynamic Silicon Diamonds in Semiconductors and the future of the industry

 

 

The first microprocessor was the Intel 4004, introduced in 1971. The 4004 was not very powerful -- all it could do was add and subtract, and it could only do that 4 bits at a time. But it was amazing that everything was on one chip. Prior to the 4004, engineers built computers either from collections of chips or from discrete components (transistors wired one at a time). The 4004 powered one of the first portable electronic calculators.

The first microprocessor to make it into a home computer was the Intel 8080, a complete 8-bit computer on one chip, introduced in 1974. The first microprocessor to make a real splash in the market was the Intel 8088, introduced in 1979 and incorporated into the IBM PC (which first appeared around 1982). If you are familiar with the PC market and its history, you know that the PC market moved from the 8088 to the 80286 to the 80386 to the 80486 to the Pentium to the Pentium II to the Pentium III to the Pentium 4. All of these microprocessors are made by Intel and all of them are improvements on the basic design of the 8088. The Pentium 4 can execute any piece of code that ran on the original 8088, but it does it about 5,000 times faster.

Details from HowStuffWorks.com

Semico launched the "Semico Inflection Point Indicator" (IPI), a new forecasting tool designed to track the next inflection point in the semiconductor industry. Semico uses the IPI in conjunction with its Tracker Index, which was developed to provide a short-term outlook for sales in the following three months. The Tracker Index was designed in the late 1990s to provide additional data that was lost when industry trade groups (such as WSTS and SIA) stopped reporting bookings.

Since then, Semico has been searching for a set of variables that would provide a leading long-term indicator for the direction of the semiconductor industry. The IPI does exactly that, accurately predicting the direction of semiconductor sales six to eight months prior to the inflection point. The IPI reveals significant changes in sales trends and is a prelude to the strength, stability, or weakness in the industry. Semico's IPI tool has proven to be a leading indicator to the trends, anticipating directional changes, and additionally providing a platform for long-term forecasting direction.

Data from 1984 and 1986 shows how the IPI works. In the period between May and December 1984, revenue shipments were on an upward trend, as indicated by a black line in the IPI chart (see 1984-1986 chart). During that timeframe, the PC market was just evolving, and as a result, semiconductor manufacturers were anticipating a booming market. Based on this data, it would have been easy to deduce that the market was on a positive course.

Historical data between 1995 and 1997 reveals a similar leading correlation between the inflection point indicator and future sales. The inflection point indicator began to show weakness in July 1995 through January 1996, indicative of the coming downturn that occurred in the first half of 1996 (see 1995-1997 chart). Likewise, the positive movement that occurred in the second half of 1996 was a preliminary sign that the market would enter into a period of positive growth in early 1997."

Details copied from SiliconStrategies.com

A chart of Microprocessor Trends (along with technical specs of and changes ammended to the industry).

The investment community sees much better things happening for both semiconductors and semiconductor equipment in 2002. We mentioned in the comments to the charts that the analysts' consensus is for worldwide semiconductor revenues to rise 8.5 percent in 2002. This is a big turnaround because those same revenues dropped an average of 8 percent per quarter in 2001. It was also good enough for the Philadelphia Stock Exchange's SOX Index, a semiconductor-tracking index, to jump 13 percent to 589 in the first three trading days of 2002.